Correction Warning at VN-Index 1,750 Points: In-Depth Forex Analysis and the Downtrend of Gold and Bitcoin

Release Time: 10:00 AM, December 9, 2025 Analyst: Mr. Loki

MARKET OVERVIEW

Vietnam Market: The market remains in an uptrend, but cautious sentiment has emerged as several stock groups cool down and liquidity fails to improve. The 1,750–1,770 point region may cause consolidation or a slight correction, but the recovery trend since 12/11/2025 still acts as support, helping the market maintain its short-term upward potential.

US Market: The US market maintained its positive momentum on 12/08 as expectations for a Fed rate cut continued to rise, with the probability of a rate cut in March 2026 reaching nearly 87% according to CME FedWatch. The latest unemployment claims report registered 191,000 filings, lower than the forecast of 219,000 and the lowest level since 09/2022, suggesting the labor market remains strong. However, some experts warn that the data may be "artificially strong" due to the influence of the Thanksgiving holiday. Bond yields fell slightly, providing support for the technology sector, while gold saw a slight correction to below $4,200/oz, primarily due to short-term profit-taking activities. The medium-term trend remains positive as expectations of monetary easing continue to bolster market sentiment.

2. Forex

AUD/USD: The primary trend is upward. Daily resistance: 0.66400. Daily support: 0.66100. A short position can be entered if the price breaks below the daily support zone.

USD/CHF: The primary trend is sideways. Daily resistance: 0.80800. Daily support: 0.80500. A long position can be entered if the price breaks above the daily resistance zone.

3. Gold

The price has sharply plummeted to the $4,188 region, wiping out previous recovery efforts. Selling pressure from the $4,260 peak is immense. Currently, although the Stochastic indicator has hit the bottom (oversold), suggesting a minor rebound, the price structure remains very weak. If it breaks the $4,180 zone, the decline will accelerate.

4. Oil

XTI/USD: The primary trend is downward. Daily resistance: 59.00. Daily support: 58.30. A short position can be entered if the price breaks below the daily support zone.

5. Bitcoin

BTC has lost the critical support level of $91,400 and is currently trading around $90,300. The short-term trend has switched to Bearish. The Bears are pushing the price towards the psychological round number of $90,000 to test market sentiment.

RECOMMENDATIONS

GBP/USD:

    • Buy Stop at 1.33510.

    • Stop Loss at 1.32900.

    • Take Profit at 1.34700.

  • Vietnam Stock: GDA

    • BUY GDA (09/12/2025).

    • Entry Price: 16,500 - 17,100 VNĐ.

    • Target 1: 18,700 VNĐ.

    • Target 2: 21,500 VNĐ.

    • Cut Loss: 16,000 VNĐ.

NOTABLE EVENTS TODAY

  • 10:30 AM (AUD):

    • Cash Rate: Announced at 3.60% (matching forecast of 3.60%).

    • RBA Rate Statement: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will issue its statement explaining the rate decision.

  • 11:30 AM (AUD):

    • RBA Press Conference: RBA Governor will hold a press conference.

  • 4:00 PM (JPY):

    • BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks: Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Ueda will deliver a speech.

  • 9:15 PM (GBP):

    • Monetary Policy Report Hearings: Related to September Data (Sep Data).

  • 10:00 PM (USD):

    • JOLTS Job Openings: Expected 7.14 Million (M). Previous figure was 7.23 Million (M).

  • Tentative Time (USD):

    • ADP Weekly Employment Change: Previous figure was -13.5 Thousand (K).

DISCLAIMER

  • The views expressed herein represent only the personal opinion of analyst Loki from Lotus and should not be used as the sole basis for actual market participation.

  • Lotus only provides technical analysis and trading knowledge training for students.

  • Lotus does not represent any securities firm or asset management company.

  • Lotus does not manage students' funds.