Geopolitics is heating up, and capital is seeking refuge.

RELEASE TIME: 10:00 AM, June 16, 2025
Published by: Ms. Jenny

MARKET OVERVIEW

1. Stock Market:

  • Vietnam Market: The market declined due to negative impacts from global developments but found support around the 1,305 level and formed a Star candlestick. Increased liquidity indicates strong supply, yet supportive cash flows remain active. Although not fully recovered, there is an effort to absorb supply, suggesting a potential rebound in the next session toward the MA(20) resistance zone around 1,325. Current supply-demand signals may guide the next trend.

  • U.S. Market: On June 13, the U.S. market dropped sharply due to geopolitical tensions. The Dow Jones lost 800.25 points (–1.86%) to 42.197,79; the S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 5,976.97; and the Nasdaq declined 1.3% to 21.631,04. Oil prices surged nearly 7% due to Israel–Iran tensions, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 4.41%. Capital rotated into gold and defense stocks, while financial and tech sectors faced selling pressure.

2. Forex:

  • GBP/USD: Short-term downtrend. Selling positions can be considered. Daily resistance: 1.35800

  • USD/CAD: Downtrend. Selling positions can be considered. Daily resistance: 1.36250

3. Gold:

  • Current Price: 3,450 USD/ounce, up approximately +0.5%

  • Cause: Middle East tensions (Israel–Iran) and a weaker USD are driving capital into gold as a safe haven.

  • Short-term Analysis: Gold is in an upward trend and may approach 3,500 USD/ounce if tensions persist and the USD remains weak.

4. Oil:

  • XTI/USD: Currently in an uptrend, but prices have risen significantly, so a pullback is anticipated.

5. Crypto – Bitcoin (BTC):

  • Current Price: ~105.55k USD, slightly up +0.07% compared to yesterday

  • Weekly Movement: On June 16, BTC closed at 105.55k USD (+0.07%), with the daily high reaching ~105.91k USD.

  • Short-term Trend: Bitcoin is consolidating around 105k–106k USD. Moving averages indicate a stable uptrend with strong support around 99.4k USD. If it stays above 105k and doesn’t fall below 99.4k USD, BTC may resume its upward trend, targeting 110–112k USD in the short term.

TRADE STRATEGY

1. BTC/USD

  • Buy Strategy: Entry at 105.6k USD

  • Stop-loss: 101.6k USD

  • Take-profit: 117.6k – 120k USD

2. GBP/USD

  • Trend: Downtrend

  • Sell Recommendation: Entry at 1.35666

  • Stop-loss: 1.36066

  • Take-profit: 1.34866

KEY EVENTS TODAY

  • 09:00 – CNY – Industrial Production y/y

  • 09:00 – CNY – Retail Sales y/y

  • 19:30 – USD – Empire State Manufacturing Index

DISCLAIMER

  • The above analysis reflects the personal opinion of analyst Jenny from Lotus and should not be considered as investment advice.

  • Lotus provides trading technical analysis and trading education only.

  • Lotus does not represent any securities or asset management firm.

  • Lotus does not manage funds on behalf of students.